Calculated Degens presents
The Degenerates Journal

Morning Market Briefing · Basic Edition · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · South Florida · Filed 05:02 ET

“I've learned many things from him, but perhaps the most significant is that it's not whether you're right or wrong, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.” — Stanley Druckenmiller

  • Nvidia's board is reportedly preparing to oust its chief executive
  • CoreWeave's beat built Wednesday's rebound — and the morning is testing it
  • December pricing hardened after the hot October print

Futures

S&P FUTURES7,619.00−0.28%
NASDAQ FUTURES28,291.00−0.64%
DOW FUTURES52,656+0.15%
VIX18.23early
10-YEAR4.998%+1.5 bp Wed
RISK77Transition

Futures as of 05:02 ET · VIX early · 10-year at Wednesday's 4.998% print (bonds were closed Wednesday for Veterans Day) · risk 77, Transition regime · Lens board as of Wednesday's close.

The Story

Wednesday's rebound was real — and it lasted about five hours past the bell. The S&P 500 rose 1.31% to 7,619.38, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.60% to 25,466.19 and the Dow rose 0.49% to 52,486.49 as CoreWeave's after-hours beat on Tuesday rebuilt the AI trade: CoreWeave itself rose 24.71% on the session, SanDisk 13.69%, Micron 11.89% and Dell 11.75%. Then, after the close, the Wall Street Journal reported that Nvidia's board is preparing to oust chief executive Jensen Huang, and the same complex unwound: Nvidia fell about 8% after hours and trades 5.7% lower ahead of today's bell near $163.76, CoreWeave gave back about 7% premarket, and Nasdaq futures lead the morning lower (−0.64%) against a flat Dow. The 10-year yield printed 4.998% on Wednesday with the bond market closed for Veterans Day; cash Treasuries reopen today, jobless claims print at 08:30 ET, and Cisco and Applied Materials report after the closing bell — with Nvidia's own earnings now five days out, on November 17.

What matters most today — a governance story at the complex's largest name, priced into a claims print and a 30-year auction

Wednesday printed the rebound in full: the S&P 500 up 1.31% to 7,619.38 on CoreWeave's beat, the memory and hardware names up 11–25%, the fear gauge down to 17.49 and the risk meter easing to 77. Overnight printed the counter: a board reportedly preparing to remove the chief executive of the complex's largest company, Nvidia about 8% lower after hours and 5.7% lower premarket, Nasdaq futures leading down, and no company statement, board decision or House reply on the record as of 05:02 ET. A session that holds most of Wednesday is a complex pricing a governance story at one name; a session that gives it back is a complex repricing its centre.

Pre-Market / Overnight Standout

NVDA — NVIDIA −5.7% · The board turns — a reported ouster, an 8% after-hours fall, and no statement yet.

Nvidia trades about 5.7% lower ahead of the bell, near $163.76 against Wednesday's $173.73 close, after the Wall Street Journal reported that the company's board is preparing to oust chief executive Jensen Huang. The shares fell about 8% after hours (Reuters) and were down 7% in early premarket trade before paring part of the fall. The reversal is total: Wednesday's session had been the story's first good day — the shares rose 2.87% to $173.73 on volume of about 339M shares as CoreWeave's after-hours beat rebuilt the AI trade, recovering part of the two-session fall that followed the board's November 8 announcement of an independent investigation. Sunday, that board expressed confidence in Huang's leadership. Nothing the company has published since has withdrawn that statement — and as of 05:02 ET this morning, nothing has replaced it: Nvidia did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and Reuters could not immediately verify the Journal's report.

What the Journal reported, via Reuters, is specific: the board is preparing to oust Huang after reports of two extramarital affairs, including one with a suspected Chinese spy, and the board was preparing to meet as soon as Wednesday to determine his future; a Reuters source said the board was meeting late Wednesday to decide. Earlier Wednesday the New York Times had reported an affair with a company executive who reported to him. The investigation the board announced on Sunday — run by its independent directors with Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz and former acting U.S. Attorney Joon H. Kim as counsel — was into the relationship and the company's safeguards; the question has now moved from the relationship to the chief executive's tenure itself. No outcome of the board's meeting had been announced in any source this edition read by 05:02 ET, and the edition does not state one.

The Washington thread runs on the same clock. Three House Republican chairs asked Huang on November 4 for a closed-door briefing on November 18; Foreign Affairs chair Brian Mast said Huang had until 17:00 ET Wednesday to say whether he would agree to meet behind closed doors, with subpoenas likely to follow if he did not agree or propose another date, and the chairs were unlikely to accept the general counsel answering in his place (Reuters). As of 05:02 ET there is no public confirmation of a reply. Separately, Senators Warren and Coons asked the administration to preserve all documents tied to Nvidia's chip exports to China (Reuters), and customer Megaspeed said it cooperated with U.S. inspections. Succession talk centres on engineer Ian Buck and finance chief Colette Kress (Reuters) — speculation, printed as such; nothing has been announced.

The read into the open: this is now the fourth morning of the same company's story, and each morning the question has changed — governance, then shipments, then a deadline, now tenure. The business dates have not moved: earnings after the November 17 close against $108.0B of revenue guidance, and the requested November 18 briefing. What prices today is whether the complex treats a reported ouster at its largest company as one name's story or its own: Wednesday's close at $173.73 is the line the premarket has already surrendered, Monday's $178.67 close the level the shares left when the story widened, and the after-hours low near $159.51 reported by CBS is the first line underneath. Cisco and Applied Materials report after the closing bell today — the complex's equipment leg prints on the day its centre is in question.

NVDA weekly chart with key levels

FIG. 1 — NVDA · Weekly candles with the key levels · Data through Wednesday’s close.

The Engine List

Today's Engine List — twelve names the desk's screens carried into Thursday, ranked lowest to highest by forward multiple where a multiple is on file, with Wednesday's closes. The full board, the levels and the Lens reads are Pro.

SymbolCompanyLastChangeThe take
SNDKSanDisk$977.69+13.7%SanDisk closed Wednesday at $977.69 (+13.7%), 33.4% below its 50−day average at 5.7x forward earnings.
NVDANVIDIA$173.73+2.9%NVIDIA closed Wednesday at $173.73 (+2.9%), 20.0% below its 50−day average at 12.7x forward earnings.
UBERUber Technologies$70.68+0.9%Uber Technologies closed Wednesday at $70.68 (+0.9%), 1.3% above its 50−day average at 15.0x forward earnings.
AVGOBroadcom$345.22+4.0%Broadcom closed Wednesday at $345.22 (+4.0%), 0.1% below its 50−day average at 19.9x forward earnings.
TSLATesla$390.84+2.9%Tesla closed Wednesday at $390.84 (+2.9%), 4.6% above its 50−day average at 195.9x forward earnings.
AMDAdvanced Micro Devices$552.90+7.3%Advanced Micro Devices closed Wednesday at $552.90 (+7.3%), 0.5% above its 50−day average.
DELLDell Technologies$373.68+11.8%Dell Technologies closed Wednesday at $373.68 (+11.8%), 25.2% below its 50−day average.
NETCloudflare$315.00+3.0%Cloudflare closed Wednesday at $315.00 (+3.0%), 1.2% below its 50−day average.
ANETArista Networks$196.68+6.3%Arista Networks closed Wednesday at $196.68 (+6.3%), 2.2% above its 50−day average.
TXNTexas Instruments$309.81+3.1%Texas Instruments closed Wednesday at $309.81 (+3.1%), 10.0% above its 50−day average.
AMATApplied Materials$395.08+6.0%Applied Materials closed Wednesday at $395.08 (+6.0%), 10.3% below its 50−day average.
ADIAnalog Devices$409.08+4.0%Analog Devices closed Wednesday at $409.08 (+4.0%), 4.1% above its 50−day average.

Market Health

Degen Risk 77 of 100, Transition regime — computed on Wednesday's close from the v2 meter, down from Tuesday's 86: the fear gauge fell to 17.49 and the index's stress leg eased, but the meter stays in the seventies because the credit leg has not cooled — high-yield still sits about 4.7% below its 252-session high — and the S&P 500, at 7,619.38, is still about 0.7% under its 50-day average at 7,672.67. The regime improved; it did not clear.

Breadth and the day's shape — six of twelve above their 50-day averages, and the narrowing is one name's story

Breadth on the Engine List: 6 of the 12 Engine List names closed Wednesday above their own 50-day averages — Texas Instruments, Tesla, Analog Devices, Arista Networks, Uber and AMD — while the other six, including Nvidia at 20.0% below its average and SanDisk at 33.4% below, closed under theirs. Wednesday's index gain was broad at the close; this morning's premarket tape is narrow again, and it is one company's governance story doing the narrowing.

Futures Levels

YM — Pressing the week-of-Jul 6 weekly swing high at 53,656 (1.9% away).

ES — Pressing the week-of-Jul 13 weekly swing high at 7,632 (0.2% away).

NQ — Sitting on the week-of-Jun 8 weekly swing low at 28,228 (0.2% away).

The Look Ahead

Today 08:30 ET — Weekly jobless claims — Initial claims are expected at 195K against 189K the prior week; continuing claims are expected at 1.72M. Existing-home sales follow at 10:00 ET (3.85M expected against 3.99M), the delayed EIA petroleum report lands late morning, the $25B 30-year bond auction at 13:00 ET and the federal budget statement at 14:00 ET.

The rest of the week — the Nvidia question, Friday's producer prices and next week's Nvidia print

Today, during the session — the Nvidia question stays open — House Foreign Affairs chair Brian Mast said Nvidia's chief executive had until 17:00 ET Wednesday to say whether he would agree to the requested November 18 closed-door briefing, with subpoenas likely to follow if he did not (Reuters). As of 05:02 ET today there is no public confirmation of the reply, of a board decision on the chief executive's future, or of a subpoena — the edition prints the questions open, not answered.

Today, after the closing bell — Cisco and Applied Materials report — The week's two large-cap technology prints land together after the closing bell today. Applied Materials consensus sits at $4.06 a share on the calendars that agree; Cisco's printed consensus differs by source (a $1.15–$1.35 range across calendars), so the edition prints tonight's actual against the range rather than picking one.

Fri 08:30 ET — Producer prices (Oct) — The wholesale leg of the inflation pair: headline expected up 0.4% in the month (September: +1.3%) (Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule).

Tue Nov 17, after the closing bell — Nvidia reports — Nvidia's quarter lands five days from today, against $108.0B of revenue guidance; the requested House briefing on the Huang matter follows on November 18.

Earnings Today

Before the open

  • Brookfield (BN)
  • Nebius (NBIS)
  • Ascendis Pharma (ASND)
  • Hudbay Minerals (HBM)
  • Twist Bioscience (TWST)

After the close

  • Cisco (CSCO)
  • Applied Materials (AMAT)
  • Nu Holdings (NU)
  • Ross Stores (ROST)
  • Cerebras (CBRS)

Recent Basic Editions

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In this edition

  1. Decision Block
  2. Yesterday's Tape
  3. Market Movers
  4. While You Slept
  5. Pre-Market / Overnight Standout
  6. Premarket Movers
  7. Asset Snapshot
  8. Market Health
  9. Economic Calendar
  10. Earnings Today
  11. The Engine List
  12. Engine List Changes
  13. News That May Affect the Market
  14. The Strongest Average of the Day
  15. The Question into the Close
  16. Education builds conviction — membership