A hot October print repriced December

Futures

Futures as of 05:04 ET · VIX early · 10-year at Tuesday's close · risk 86, Transition regime

The Story

Tuesday gave back a slice of Monday's surge — and the reason was a price, not a panic. The S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,520.93, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.74% to 25,065.87 and the Dow fell 0.30% to 52,231.89 after October consumer prices printed hot at 08:30 ET: headline up 0.4% in the month against 0.3% expected, core up 0.3% against 0.2% expected. The 10-year yield closed at 4.983%, up 11.9 basis points after trading above 5%. Nvidia fell a second day, down 5.47% to $168.89, as its board's investigation widened — outside counsel retained, a new report alleging at least $7.5B of chip shipments to Chinese firms, and a securities class action filed. Financials led what green there was; technology lagged. After the bell, CoreWeave rewrote the morning: third-quarter revenue of $3.66B, up 168% from a year earlier, guidance raised — and by 05:04 ET the relief is broad, with Nasdaq futures up 1.65%, S&P futures up 0.73% and the chip names that fell hardest trading 4–9% higher ahead of the bell. Today is Veterans Day: equities trade a full session, the bond market is closed, and the week's next hard print is Friday's producer prices.

Pre-Market / Overnight Standout

NVDA — NVIDIA +4.1% · The investigation's third day — a bounce, a deadline, and no reply yet.

Nvidia trades about 4% higher ahead of the bell, near $175.77 against Tuesday's $168.89 close — a partial retracement of a two-session fall of about 9.5% that has taken roughly $430B off the company's value. Tuesday's session widened the story before it repriced it: the shares fell 5.47% as the board's investigation added a commercial leg to a governance one, trading as low as $165.89 before closing off the low on volume of 3.11x its 30-session average — the week's heaviest Nvidia tape, and the second straight session in which sellers pressed the story intraday and buyers took part of it back by the bell. The board's standing statement has not moved since Sunday: it has no reason to believe any secrets were compromised, and it has expressed confidence in Huang's leadership. Nothing in Tuesday's additions contradicted that statement; nothing in them closed the questions it answers. off the low.

What changed on Tuesday is on the record. The board's independent directors retained Joon H. Kim of Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz to lead the inquiry, and chief executive Jensen Huang emailed employees backing the probe. The Information reported the relationship helped facilitate at least $7.5B of Nvidia chip shipments to Chinese firms; Senator Schumer demanded an accounting and faster export curbs; and a securities class action was filed. What has not changed hands yet is the document today is dated for: the company's reply to the House committee chairs is due today, November 11, and as of 05:04 ET there is no public confirmation that it has been filed or published.

The paper trail around the story grew on the same day. The New York Times reported Secretary of State Rubio had briefed President Trump on the intelligence aboard Air Force One in May, on the way to China; Bloomberg reported Nvidia's general counsel intervened in a Commerce Department probe of Megaspeed last summer, with the company saying he was unaware of the affair; and Huang will not appear at today's ElevenLabs summit, an appearance the company confirmed on Monday he had cancelled. A securities class action filed Tuesday sets a lead-plaintiff deadline of January 8, 2027 — the story now runs on court and committee calendars as much as on headlines. Beijing has described the espionage allegations as baseless, and the President has said Huang should not worry about the FBI's look into the matter — the political weather, like the market's, is for now running warmer than the legal weather.

The read into the open: the bounce is the complex's, not the company's — CoreWeave's after-hours beat lifted every AI hardware name, and Nvidia rose with its sector, not on its own news. Its own dates are still ahead of it: earnings after the November 17 close, against $108.0B of revenue guidance, and the requested House briefing on November 18. Tuesday's $168.89 close is the line the bounce has to hold; Monday's $178.67 close, the level the shares left when the story widened, is the first reclaim that would say the market is pricing the business again.

FIG. 1 — NVDA · Weekly candles with the key levels · Data through Tuesday's close.

The Engine List

Today's Engine List — the nine names the desk's screens carried into Wednesday, ranked lowest to highest by forward multiple where a multiple is on file, with Tuesday's closes. The full board, the levels and the Lens reads are Pro.

Market Health

Degen Risk 86 of 100, Transition regime — computed on Tuesday's close from the v2 meter, up from Monday's 83: the stress leg carries the index 2.0% under its 50-day average at 7,672.91 with the fear gauge at 19.46, the rates leg is near neutral with the 10-year at 4.983%, and the credit leg is still the hot one — a high-yield drawdown of about 4.9% from its 252-session high is what keeps the score in the eighties while the equity tape argues about direction.

Futures Levels

YM — Sitting on the week-of-Jul 27 weekly swing low at 51,630 (1.3% away).

ES — Pressing the week-of-Jul 13 weekly swing high at 7,632 (0.4% away).

NQ — Sitting on the week-of-Jun 8 weekly swing low at 28,228 (0.2% away).

The Look Ahead

Today 07:00 ET — Mortgage applications — The MBA's weekly survey is the day's only regular U.S. release: Veterans Day closes the federal government, the Federal Reserve and the bond market, while equities trade a full session. The EIA petroleum report shifts to Thursday at 12:00 ET.

Earnings Today

Recent Basic Editions

• Tue Nov 10 — Morning Basic
• Mon Nov 9 — Morning Basic
• Sun Nov 8 — Sunday Basic
• Fri Nov 6 — Morning Basic
• Thu Nov 5 — Morning Basic
• Wed Nov 4 — Morning Basic
• Fri Oct 30 — Morning Basic

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